Baseball Predictions

Allow me a non-photography post, a post for the record. Lots of folks have asked me for my predictions for the Seattle Mariners this season. Before the season I was predicting 76-80 wins with an outside chance to make the post-season if a couple players play beyond expectations (Sweeney, Griffey, Betancourt and Rowand-Smith, for example).

Now, with the hot start the M’s have had I think anyone with a prediction now has to add a few wins to their totals. The M’s are 8-4 and already exceeding my expectations. I don’t believe they will play 0.667 ball the rest of the way but eight wins is eights wins, those don’t get taken away. So, for the record, I’ll put the M’s winning 80-84 games. If I have to pick a final record I’ll go with 83-79.

With the Angels loosing Vladimir Guerrero for up to as long as two months, the Angels lineup just got a lot weaker, down to the point where the American League West is up for grabs. Before Vlads injury I think the Angels had a slight advantage, but not much. I think the M’s have a shot, but so does Oakland and Texas, but to a lesser degree. In terms of percentages:

Anaheim – 30%
Seattle – 30%
Texas – 20%
Oakland – 20%

The M’s have a legitimate shot at the post-season and that is exciting. They have an outside chance of exceeding 85 wins with a couple players bringing in big years (see previously mentioned players). Bedard is pitching well, Felix is getting there and the rest of the staff has done better than I expected. I am excited about this team and even more excited about the long term future of this team. In the mean time, enjoy it everyone!

Oh, BTW, defense matters. Franklin Gutierrez might be the most important player the Mariners added in the off season (via trade with the Mets). His defense has already saved runs (opening day at Safeco he cut off a ball in the gap certain to be a double with a lesser outfielder and kept the go ahead run at third base, saving a run). I just wish more of the casual fan base realized that a great outfielder doesn’t have to be a great offensive threat to be of real value to a team.

I am headed to the game this afternoon, 1:05 start, cloudless sky, 70 degrees. Are we really in the Pacific Northwest?

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~ by Ted R on April 19, 2009.

One Response to “Baseball Predictions”

  1. I passed your predictions on to my teenage boys, they will be waiting and watching with anticipation! 🙂

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